Playoff Preview Part Deux

So the last couple weeks the combination of baby, alcohol and work have left me fairly sleep deprived, which has resulted in some really wierd dreams.  Two nights ago I dreamt I went to Israel and for some reason there were dead dogs all over the street, and I was being chased by some crazy dude, then suddenly woke up (still in my dream) and was on a dentist chair with my pants missing.  Some dude came in and said I had to go through some secret door to meet a guy to get them back.  Started me on a loop through some huge complex where I walked through a vegetable farm, met some rich indian dude who tried to charge for my pants, then stumbled through a karaoke bar, made a left turn and ended up in a huge room where there was a sex party, and I walked past 2 trannies going at it (woke up to an image of the tranny, and am not proud to admit I was somewhat aroused).

This dream shows how fucked up I am, but also makes me think of the scrubs we’ve left behind at this point in the season.  Danny and Dan (Jewish), Prabu (Indian), Stev (vegetable brain at this point), Billy (he’s philipino right?  Karaoke), Frank (his nipples would fit in well with the tranny sex party). 

Methodology:

Gave teams a Power Rank (no relation to Rapes) which was a blend based on Total Points, Median Points, Weeks >100pts, Median Bench Points.  Then calculated a Momentum Rank blend based on a teams season standard deviation multiplied by [last 3 non-bye weeks score / 1st 3 weeks score] (meant to represent upside bias due to most recent performance and potential for upside volatility) and Strength of Schedule (I used footballoutsiders.com rankings for the 8 teams that have the easiest and hardest run and pass schedules, and then gave a squad +/- a point for each of their 7 skill players that face of vs either run or pass def).

Fantasy Playoff Schedules
 
Eight Easiest Pass Eight Toughest Pass Eight Easiest Run Eight Toughest Run
HOU IND BAL NO
BAL NYG HOU IND
WAS SEA MIA SEA
MIA SD KC JAC
DET GB CIN PHI
BUF PHI DET NE
DAL CLE DAL NYG
TEN KC OAK CAR

 

Used an equal weighting of the six metrics to come up with Total Rank.

    Raw Data              
    Total Median Weeks Median   Last 3 / STD x Stength
    Points Points > 100pts Bench pts STDEV First 3 last3/1st3 Schedule
Leprechauns   1,386.40      109.40       8.00       28.78     20.74        0.94     19.44 -4
Lionel Hutz   1,231.74        89.16       5.00       21.42     22.58        0.89     20.09 0
Hurricane Ditka   1,305.20        98.68       6.00       31.64     22.02        0.85     18.76 -1
The Brink     1,220.74        93.60       4.00       27.90     11.05        1.03     11.42 2
Dockers United   1,314.94        99.38       5.00       27.12     19.52        1.11     21.57 1
Peaty Whisky   1,264.48        98.74       6.00       30.26     21.30        0.75     16.03 0
CHL     1,348.56      110.98       7.00       16.36     19.28        0.98     18.97 -4
Rapelithsberger   1,178.10        92.26       5.00       19.92     17.87        1.02     18.31 4
Gridiron Giant   1,214.30        90.12       4.00       30.00     17.06        0.96     16.36 -1
    Rankings                
    Total Median Weeks Median POWER STD x Stength MOMENTUM TOTAL
    Points Points > 100pts Bench pts RANK last3/1st3 Schedule RANK RANK
Leprechauns 1 2 1 4 1 3 8 4 1
Lionel Hutz 6 9 5 7 7 2 4 2 6
Hurricane Ditka 4 5 3 1 2 5 6 4 3
The Brink   7 6 8 5 6 9 2 4 8
Dockers United 3 3 5 6 5 1 3 1 2
Peaty Whisky 5 4 3 2 3 8 4 7 4
CHL   2 1 2 9 3 4 8 7 4
Rapelithsberger 9 7 5 8 9 6 1 3 7
Gridiron Giant 8 8 8 3 7 7 6 9 9

Conclusion: 

Appears Danny really did deserve to miss the playoffs (note I didn’t mess with this at all, came up with a methodology and just spat out what it did).  Also appears it really only needed to be a 5 team playoff (Hutz, Brink and Rape have no shot).  It also confirmed that Brink’s team sucks despite the record, but he had the by far the lowest standard deviation is scores, which I think maybe means he was the best manager.

Leprechuan beasted all year, and unless GB sits starters going to be very tough for him to lose.

My fate this week may come down to flex.  Do I start Crabtree who’s been playing well and faces Arizona or Ricky Williams playing feeble Indy (is Baltimore going to rest Rice and just run Ricky once they have a 3td lead?)?

Large rodent in small anus.  Lets see if that gets picked up on the next google search list.

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Playoff Preview

I’ll keep this brief, but thought I’d write a brief playoff preview, and also look at how it appears I’ll fair versus my beginning of year predictions.

My Previous Predictions:

> Final Four: PeatyWhisky, Christ Punchers, Gridiron Giant and Rapelithsberger – only got one of these right (but I’ll defend the CP pick, and GG will at least make the playoffs)

> Biggest Upsets: Both Juice and The Wops finish the season with more points than LIONel Hutz and Leprechauns – this just looks silly

> Deadlast Award: Suck It Trebek is the easy pick here, but will be followed closely by Cool Hand Luke and Dockers United FC – got this one, but it was a layup

In closing, initial impressions seemed to hold, and Division 2 appears set for a dog fight.  For that reason I think Christ Punchers will win it all (couldn’t pick myself) provided Foster doesn’t get injured. – CP showed some real tenacity, and with a few bounces could slide into 8th spot and win it all (seems like it might be to little to late though) 

Playoff Ranks:

Last Out: Lionel Hutz finishes in an 8th place tie with his brother, but loses out on points (too little too late from an improved DJ and PH)

8)  Gridiron Giant: sneaks in the back door (both literally and figuratively).  Despite a final day thrashing at the hands of CP and a losing record 6-7, he knocks out his bro on points

7)  Captain Insano: despite shear managerial incompetence Insano goes on a coke fueled 4 game winning streak to lock down 7th position at 7-6

6)  Dockers United: limps into the playoffs with 2 straight loses, finishes at 8-5 and sets up arguably the easiest 1st round matchup of all the underdogs (vs Brink)

5)  Peaty Whisky: an indifferent 2nd half of the years drops Peaty to 8-5 and 5th seed, setting up what’s sure to be a heated matchup vs CHL

4)  Cool Hand Luke: despite a mediocre team, CHL finishes at 8-4 to get homefield advantage in the 1st round

3)  The Brink: finishes the season with 7 straight wins at 10-3, the most improbable favorite in the opening round

2)  Hurricane Ditka: the clear Western Division leader comes into the playoffs with 2 straight wins and a 10-3 record

1)  Leprechauns: the clear class of the league as he finishes at 10-3, after riding Aaron Rodgers and the GB Packers (too bad they will have homefield locked up by Week 15)

Playoff Matchups:

> I’ll re-write this section once the actual matchups are set, but am taking a quick stab at it based off mine

> Only 1 upset in the 1st round as favorable matchups for Detroit, Chicago and SD result in a Peaty Whisky beasting as CHL falls in the highest scoring 1st round matchup

> 2nd Round: Lep see’s GB ride into Arrowhead with the NFC title locked up.  After throwing 2 1H touchdowns, GB sits its starters, leading to a close loss to Peaty.  Hurrican Ditka rides the Saints to the finals, in a complete beatdown of Dockers

> Finals: Ben Tate goes wild in Indy, Det v SD shootout, and Forte beasting in GB.  BUT, NO gets up for a chance to knock ATL out of the playoffs.  Outcome…  TBD

Week 4 Musings

In celebration of Rosh Hashanah I’ll be making 3 picks this week. 1) Biggest Upset; 2) Most Lopsided Matchup; 3) Weeks Winner.

I don’t want to steal Danny’s thunder so will only pick one game (Biggest Upset).  According to Yahoo Cool Hand Luke is a 15pt favorite over The Brink (this is the 2nd biggest differential for the week).  I the NE continues to struggle in OAK, SF DEF stops McCoy.  BUF, ATL and DET are all going to be in shoot outs (well SEA may not be doing any shooting), which should mean monster days for Fitzpatrick, White and Megatron.  Final  Score 95-90.  As an aside the 3rd biggest favorite is Rape, who I think probably loses as well.

Most lopsided matchup will be PeatyWhisky vs The Wops.  CJ breaks out, Matthews continues to beast and Forte runs for 100, catches 100 and get a couple scores.  Given NE will struggle in OAK Peaty’s 3 rbs will almodt outscore the entire Wops team.  Final score 120-75.

Gridiron Giant breaks out of his malaise and puts up a 130 spot on DITKA to win week 4.  AP, Hightower and Rapist will put up 20+ each and the NYG DEF will dominate ARI (although not before letting Fitz score a TD).  Despite the 130, matchup will be close, as DITKA finishes 2nd on the week with 125 and takes the overall lead from LIONel Hutz.

2011 Full Year Predictions

There has been alot of trash talk heading into the draft and post draft heading into the season.  So, I endeavoured to find an objective way to analysis team strength, and help make some full season predictions.  To achieve this I found a website draftsharks.com, which for a small fee allows me to input the league parameters and spits out per player auction values.  For this simplitistic analysis I summed the value of all of each teams players and compared the totals.  NOTE: I realize this is not 100% objective, as this site has its own biases and opinions, but seemed like the best option.

Before I ran the analysis, I looked at the teams and formed my own opinions, to reality check the results.  In my opinion the 4 best teams were: HURRICANE DITKA, Gridiron Giant, PeatyWhisky and Christ Punchers.  The 4 worst teams were: captain insano, Dockers United FC, Suck It Trebek and Leprechauns.

And the results: 

Division 1:

Team Rank
PeatyWhisky 1
Leprechauns 2
Christ Punchers 3
The Brink 4
Cool Hand Luke 4
The Wops!! 6
Suck It Trebek 7

Division 2:

Team Rank
Gridiron Giant 1
LIONel Hutz 2
HURRICAN DITKA 3
Rapelithsberger 4
captain insano 5
Juice 6
Dockers United FC 7

 

Nothing seems too out of sorts here.  Division 2 was the stronger division with a median value of 203, but was very bunched with a standard deviation of 10.6 (so this one will be wide open — see later for my upset pick).  Division 1 had a median value of 177 and a standard deviation of 33.9 (look for the cream to rise to the top).

Predictions:

> Final Four: PeatyWhisky, Christ Punchers, Gridiron Giant and Rapelithsberger

> Biggest Upsets: Both Juice and The Wops finish the season with more points than LIONel Hutz and Leprechauns

> Deadlast Award: Suck It Trebek is the easy pick here, but will be followed closely by Cool Hand Luke and Dockers United FC

In closing, initial impressions seemed to hold, and Division 2 appears set for a dog fight.  For that reason I think Christ Punchers will win it all (couldn’t pick myself) provided Foster doesn’t get injured. 

*If anybody wants the data behind this just email me (matt@caspianlp.com).  Also, some aholes (The Brink and The Wops!!) have players on there rosters that could easily be bettered through waives.

Good Luck!

-matt